Statistical Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Using Wastewater-Based Data of Stockholm, Sweden

An approach based on wastewater epidemiology can be used to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic by assessing the gene copy number of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. In the present study, we statistically analyzed such data from six inlets of three wastewater treatment plants, covering six regions of Stockholm, Sweden, collected over an approximate year period (week 16 of 2020 to week 22 of 2021). SARS-CoV-2 gene copy number and population-based biomarker PMMoV, as well as clinical data, such as the number of positive cases, intensive care unit numbers, and deaths, were analyzed statistically using correlations and principal component analysis (PCA). Despite the population differences, the PCA for the Stockholm dataset showed that the case numbers are well grouped across wastewater treatment plants. Furthermore, when considering the data from the whole of Stockholm, the wastewater characteristics (flow rate m3/day, PMMoV Ct value, and SARS-CoV gene copy number) were significantly correlated with the public health agency's report of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates (0.419 to 0.95, p-value < 0.01). However, while the PCA results showed that the case numbers for each wastewater treatment plant were well grouped concerning PC1 (37.3%) and PC2 (19.67%), the results from the correlation analysis for the individual wastewater treatment plants showed varied trends. SARS-CoV-2 fluctuations can be accurately predicted through statistical analyses of wastewater-based epidemiology, as demonstrated in this study.

Statistical Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Using Wastewater-Based Data of Stockholm, Sweden.

An approach based on wastewater epidemiology can be used to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic by assessing the gene copy number of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. In the present study, we statistically analyzed such data from six inlets of three wastewater treatment plants, covering six regions of Stockholm, Sweden, collected over an approximate year period (week 16 of 2020 to week 22 of 2021). SARS-CoV-2 gene copy number and population-based biomarker PMMoV, as well as clinical data, such as the number of positive cases, intensive care unit numbers, and deaths, were analyzed statistically using correlations and principal component analysis (PCA). Despite the population differences, the PCA for the Stockholm dataset showed that the case numbers are well grouped across wastewater treatment plants. Furthermore, when considering the data from the whole of Stockholm, the wastewater characteristics (flow rate m3/day, PMMoV Ct value, and SARS-CoV gene copy number) were significantly correlated with the public health agency's report of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates (0.419 to 0.95, p-value < 0.01). However, while the PCA results showed that the case numbers for each wastewater treatment plant were well grouped concerning PC1 (37.3%) and PC2 (19.67%), the results from the correlation analysis for the individual wastewater treatment plants showed varied trends. SARS-CoV-2 fluctuations can be accurately predicted through statistical analyses of wastewater-based epidemiology, as demonstrated in this study.

Long-term SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in the wastewater of Stockholm: What lessons can be learned from the Swedish perspective?

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) can be used to track the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a population. This study presents the learning outcomes from over two-year long monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in Stockholm, Sweden. The three main wastewater treatment plants in Stockholm, with a total of six inlets, were monitored from April 2020 until June 2022 (in total 600 samples). This spans five major SARS-CoV-2 waves, where WBE data provided early warning signals for each wave. Further, the measured SARS-CoV-2 content in the wastewater correlated significantly with the level of positive COVID-19 tests (r = 0.86; p << 0.0001) measured by widespread testing of the population. Moreover, as a proof-of-concept, six SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were monitored using hpPCR assay, demonstrating that variants can be traced through wastewater monitoring. During this long-term surveillance, two sampling protocols, two RNA concentration/extraction methods, two calculation approaches, and normalization to the RNA virus Pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) were evaluated. In addition, a study of storage conditions was performed, demonstrating that the decay of viral RNA was significantly reduced upon the addition of glycerol to the wastewater before storage at -80 °C. Our results provide valuable information that can facilitate the incorporation of WBE as a prediction tool for possible future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and preparations for future pandemics.

Frontier review on the propensity and repercussion of SARS-CoV-2 migration to aquatic environment.

Increased concern has recently emerged pertaining to the occurrence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in aquatic environment during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While infectious SARS-CoV-2 has yet to be identified in the aquatic environment, the virus potentially enters the wastewater stream from patient excretions and a precautionary approach dictates evaluating transmission pathways to ensure public health and safety. Although enveloped viruses have presumed low persistence in water and are generally susceptible to inactivation by environmental stressors, previously identified enveloped viruses persist in the aqueous environment from days to several weeks. Our analysis suggests that not only the surface water, but also groundwater, represent SARS-CoV-2 control points through possible leaching and infiltrations of effluents from health care facilities, sewage, and drainage water. Most fecally transmitted viruses are highly persistent in the aquatic environment, and therefore, the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in water is essential to inform its fate in water, wastewater and groundwater and subsequent human exposure.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Communities Through Wastewater Surveillance-a Potential Approach for Estimation of Disease Burden.

The episodic outbreak of COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 is severely affecting the economy, and the global count of infected patients is increasing. The actual number of patients had been underestimated due to limited facilities for testing as well as asymptomatic nature of the expression of COVID-19 on individual basis. Tragically, for emerging economies with high population density, the situation has been more complex due to insufficient testing facilities for diagnosis of the disease. However, the recent reports about persistent shedding of viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2 in the human feces have created a possibility to track the prevalence and trends of the disease in communities, known as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). In this article, we highlight the current limitations and future prospects for WBE to manage pandemics.

Benchmarking virus concentration methods for quantification of SARS-CoV-2 in raw wastewater.

Wastewater-based epidemiology offers a cost-effective alternative to testing large populations for SARS-CoV-2 virus, and may potentially be used as an early warning system for SARS-CoV-2 pandemic spread. However, viruses are highly diluted in wastewater, and a validated method for their concentration and further processing, and suitable reference viruses, are the main needs to be established for reliable SARS-CoV-2 municipal wastewater detection. For this purpose, we collected wastewater from two European cities during the Covid-19 pandemic and evaluated the sensitivity of RT-qPCR detection of viral RNA after four concentration methods (two variants of ultrafiltration-based method and two adsorption and extraction-based methods). Further, we evaluated one external (bovine corona virus) and one internal (pepper mild mottle virus) reference virus. We found a consistently higher recovery of spiked virus using the modified ultrafiltration-based method. This method also had a significantly higher efficiency (p-value <0.01) for wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detection. The ultracentrifugation method was the only method that detected SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater of both cities. The pepper mild mottle virus was found to function as a potentially suitable internal reference standard.